Physicists at UMass Amherst suggest that such an explosion could happen within the next decade, potentially “transforming our understanding of physics and rewriting the history of the universe.”

Physicists have traditionally believed that black holes end their lives in rare explosions, occurring at most once every 100,000 years. However, new research from the University of Massachusetts Amherst, published in Physical Review Letters, suggests a different scenario. The team estimates a greater than 90% chance of witnessing such an explosion within the next decade. With proper preparation, current space- and ground-based observatories could capture the event.

Observing this explosion would provide strong evidence for the existence of primordial black holes—a theorized type of black hole formed within the first second after the Big Bang 13.8 billion years ago, but never directly observed.

Figure 1. UMass Amherst Physicists Predict 90% Chance of PBH Explosion

The explosion could also provide a complete inventory of subatomic particles, including familiar ones like electrons, quarks, and Higgs bosons, as well as proposed particles such as dark matter candidates and potentially unknown particles. This comprehensive list would give researchers the tools to address one of humanity’s oldest questions: the origin of all matter. Figure 1 shows UMass Amherst Physicists Predict 90% Chance of PBH Explosion.

Exploring Black Holes

Black holes are well-known objects formed when a massive star exhausts its fuel, collapses in a supernova, and leaves behind a region of spacetime with gravity so strong that nothing, not even light, can escape. These stellar black holes are extremely massive and generally stable.

However, as Stephen Hawking noted in 1970, a different type—primordial black holes (PBHs)—could have formed from the universe’s conditions shortly after the Big Bang rather than from collapsing stars. Like traditional black holes, PBHs are highly dense and “black” because nothing can escape them, but they could be much lighter than the stellar black holes observed to date. Hawking also demonstrated that black holes have a temperature and, theoretically, can emit particles over time through “Hawking radiation” if they become sufficiently hot.

“The lighter a black hole, the hotter it becomes and the more particles it emits,” explains Andrea Thamm, co-author and assistant professor of physics at UMass Amherst. As primordial black holes (PBHs) evaporate, they grow increasingly lighter and hotter, releasing more radiation in a runaway process until they explode. This Hawking radiation is detectable by telescopes.

Despite this, no PBH has ever been directly observed. “We know how to detect Hawking radiation,” adds Joaquim Iguaz Juan, a postdoctoral researcher at UMass Amherst. “With our current telescopes, we can observe it. Since only PBHs can explode in the near future, detecting Hawking radiation would confirm we are witnessing an exploding PBH.”

Rethinking Black Hole Expectations

Physicists have long assumed that observing an exploding primordial black hole (PBH) is extremely unlikely. However, Joaquim Iguaz Juan emphasizes that scientists must challenge conventional assumptions and refine their hypotheses.

The team’s new prediction? Be prepared for a possible explosion. “We believe there is up to a 90% chance of witnessing an exploding PBH within the next 10 years,” says Aidan Symons, co-author and UMass Amherst physics graduate student.

Their study employs a “dark-QED toy model,” a variant of the usual electric force that includes a hypothesized heavy particle called a “dark electron.” Traditionally, black holes are considered electrically neutral, and PBHs were assumed to share this trait.

“We propose a different scenario,” explains Michael Baker, co-author and assistant professor at UMass Amherst. “If a primordial black hole forms with a small dark electric charge, the model predicts it could be temporarily stabilized before finally exploding.” Based on experimental data, this suggests PBH explosions could occur as often as once every 10 years, rather than once every 100,000 years.

“We’re not claiming it will definitely happen this decade,” Baker notes, “but the probability could be as high as 90%. With current technology, we could observe it if it occurs.”

Iguaz Juan adds, “Such an event would mark the first direct observation of both Hawking radiation and a PBH, providing a complete inventory of all particles in the universe [1]. It would revolutionize physics and reshape our understanding of cosmic history.”

Reference:

1. https://scitechdaily.com/90-chance-physicists-predict-a-black-hole-could-explode-this-decade/

Cite this article:

Janani R (2025), Physicists Say Black Hole May Explode Within This Decade with 90% Probability, AnaTechMaz, pp.548