China is preparing to enter the field of planetary defence. A recent paper by the China National Space Administration (CNSA) reveals that the country plans to conduct a test mission in 2030 to deflect a small asteroid from its current trajectory.

Figure 1. Artist's impression of a giant asteroid hitting the Earth – something China hopes its upcoming mission will one day help prevent.

If there is to be a space race, aiming to develop technology to protect Earth from rogue asteroids is a relatively benign goal. Of course, this assumes no one gets the idea of using the technology to redirect asteroids toward Earth, which veers into Bond villain territory. Figure 1 shows artist's impression of a giant asteroid hitting the earth – something China hopes its upcoming mission will one day help prevent.

Earth is hit by objects from outer space up to 50 times a day, though most are no larger than grains of sand and go unnoticed. However, larger objects occasionally collide with Earth, and on extremely rare occasions, these impacts are significant enough to cause extinction events, such as the one that wiped out the dinosaurs.[1]

Even medium-sized asteroids can cause immense damage without hitting the ground. In 2013, a meteor exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, with the force of a 500-kiloton nuclear bomb, shattering windows and damaging buildings. In 1908, an asteroid exploded over Tunguska, Siberia, with a force of up to 50 megatons.

In both cases (and others), humanity was extremely lucky. However, luck isn't a reliable strategy for future planning, which is why there is growing interest in identifying, tracking, and deflecting potentially dangerous asteroids before they pose a threat.

A paper published in the Journal of Deep Space Exploration by the CNSA outlines a planned mission to demonstrate China's capability to deflect an asteroid. The target is a near-Earth asteroid about 100 ft (30 m) in diameter, called (NEO) 2015 XF261, which passed within 31 million miles (50 million km) of Earth on June 9, 2024.[2]

The mission's goal is not only to deflect the asteroid but also to determine its shape, size, composition, and structure using spectral and laser 3D detectors, mid-field colour cameras, detection radars, and dust particle analysers.

These observations will occur over three to six months once the spacecraft enters orbit around the asteroid in 2030. After completing the observation phase, a kinetic impactor will be launched at the asteroid. The spacecraft will then remain on station for six to 12 months to measure the impact's effects, including changes in the asteroid's orbit, studying the impact crater, and analysing the ejected materials.

Reference:

1. https://newatlas.com/space/china-asteroid-deflection-mission-2030/
2. https://in.mashable.com/science/78767/china-plans-to-destroy-an-asteroid-for-planetary-defense-mission-by-2030-report

Cite this article:

Gokila G (2024), China Plans to Deflect a Near-Earth Asteroid In 2030, AnaTechMaz, pp. 63