Journal of Machine and Computing


A Performance Comparison of Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems for Time Series Forecasting



Journal of Machine and Computing

Received On : 16 May 2023

Revised On : 18 August 2023

Accepted On : 20 October 2023

Published On : 05 January 2024

Volume 04, Issue 01

Pages : 094-104


Abstract


Artificial neural networks and fuzzy structures have gained significant popularity in the last decade for time series forecasting. The objective is to conduct a performance comparison of various strategies to determine which ones are more effective for time series forecasting. The dataset provides instruction and evaluates forecasting models, utilizing artificial neural networks and fuzzy architectures. The observation evaluates the overall effectiveness of the forecasting models and the use of the root mean square error and means absolute error measures. This comparison analysis provides initial insights into the efficacy of artificial neural networks and fuzzy structures for predicting time series data. In predicting time series data, this study examines the precision of two renowned artificial intelligence systems, Neural Networks and Fuzzy structures. To evaluate the two algorithms, two distinct types of time series were utilized: a synthetic dataset consisting of 150 variables and a real-world dataset including 129 data points about monetary forecasts. The models' forecasting accuracy, training duration, and generalization abilities were compared. The findings validated that neural network surpassed fuzzy structures in all performance metrics when handling synthetic data. This research emphasizes the capabilities of artificial neural networks and fuzzy structures in addressing complicated forecasting problems. It demonstrates that both techniques may be utilized for predicting future time series values.


Keywords


Neural Networks, Fuzzy Systems, Forecasting Models, Mean Square Error, Time Series.


  1. O. Castillo, J. R. Castro, and P. Melin, “Forecasting the COVID-19 with Interval Type-3 Fuzzy Logic and the Fractal Dimension,” International Journal of Fuzzy Systems, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 182–197, Sep. 2022, doi: 10.1007/s40815-022-01351-7.
  2. H. Ouifak and A. Idri, “On the performance and interpretability of Mamdani and Takagi-Sugeno-Kang based neuro-fuzzy systems for medical diagnosis,” Scientific African, vol. 20, p. e01610, Jul. 2023, doi: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2023.e01610.
  3. N. Talpur, S. J. Abdulkadir, H. Alhussian, M. H. Hasan, N. Aziz, and A. Bamhdi, “Deep Neuro-Fuzzy System application trends, challenges, and future perspectives: a systematic survey,” Artificial Intelligence Review, vol. 56, no. 2, pp. 865–913, Apr. 2022, doi: 10.1007/s10462-022-10188-3.
  4. K. Bisht and A. Kumar, “A method for fuzzy time series forecasting based on interval index number and membership value using fuzzy c-means clustering,” Evolutionary Intelligence, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 285–297, Aug. 2021, doi: 10.1007/s12065-021-00656-0.
  5. H. Carreon-Ortiz, F. Valdez, P. Melin, and O. Castillo, “Architecture Optimization of a Non-Linear Autoregressive Neural Networks for Mackey-Glass Time Series Prediction Using Discrete Mycorrhiza Optimization Algorithm,” Micromachines, vol. 14, no. 1, p. 149, Jan. 2023, doi: 10.3390/mi14010149.
  6. O. Orang, P. C. de Lima e Silva, and F. G. Guimarães, “Time series forecasting using fuzzy cognitive maps: a survey,” Artificial Intelligence Review, vol. 56, no. 8, pp. 7733–7794, Dec. 2022, doi: 10.1007/s10462-022-10319-w.
  7. E. Egrioglu and E. Bas, “A new hybrid recurrent artificial neural network for time series forecasting,” Neural Computing and Applications, vol. 35, no. 3, pp. 2855–2865, Sep. 2022, doi: 10.1007/s00521-022-07753-w.
  8. R. Rathipriya, A. A. Abdul Rahman, S. Dhamodharavadhani, A. Meero, and G. Yoganandan, “Demand forecasting model for time-series pharmaceutical data using shallow and deep neural network model,” Neural Computing and Applications, vol. 35, no. 2, pp. 1945–1957, Oct. 2022, doi: 10.1007/s00521-022-07889-9.
  9. Q. Liu et al., “Nonlinear Spiking Neural Systems With Autapses for Predicting Chaotic Time Series,” IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics, pp. 1–13, 2023, doi: 10.1109/tcyb.2023.3270873.
  10. D. Javaheri, S. Gorgin, J.-A. Lee, and M. Masdari, “Fuzzy logic-based DDoS attacks and network traffic anomaly detection methods: Classification, overview, and future perspectives,” Information Sciences, vol. 626, pp. 315–338, May 2023, doi: 10.1016/j.ins.2023.01.067.
  11. M. J. Mokarram, R. Rashiditabar, M. Gitizadeh, and J. Aghaei, “Net-load forecasting of renewable energy systems using multi-input LSTM fuzzy and discrete wavelet transform,” Energy, vol. 275, p. 127425, Jul. 2023, doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.127425.
  12. A. Safari, R. Hosseini and M. Mazinani, “An Adaptive Intelligent Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Model to Manage Uncertainty of Short and Long Time-Series in Covid-19 Patterns Prediction: A Case Study on Iran,” Computational Intelligence in Electrical Engineering, Vol. 14, no. 1, 109-122, 2023.
  13. H. A. Mohammadi, S. Ghofrani, and A. Nikseresht, “Using empirical wavelet transform and high-order fuzzy cognitive maps for time series forecasting,” Applied Soft Computing, vol. 135, p. 109990, Mar. 2023, doi: 10.1016/j.asoc.2023.109990.
  14. A. Dixit and S. Jain, “Intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting method for non-stationary time series data with suitable number of clusters and different window size for fuzzy rule generation,” Information Sciences, vol. 623, pp. 132–145, Apr. 2023, doi: 10.1016/j.ins.2022.12.015.
  15. W. Xu and H. Hu, “A Novel FRBF-Type Model for Nonlinear Time Series Prediction,” Mathematical Problems in Engineering, vol. 2023, pp. 1–14, Apr. 2023, doi: 10.1155/2023/5753023.
  16. I. Ahmad, F. M’zoughi, P. Aboutalebi, I. Garrido, and A. J. Garrido, “Fuzzy logic control of an artificial neural network-based floating offshore wind turbine model integrated with four oscillating water columns,” Ocean Engineering, vol. 269, p. 113578, Feb. 2023, doi: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.113578.
  17. A. K. Dwivedi, U. Kaliyaperumal Subramanian, J. Kuruvilla, A. Thomas, D. Shanthi, and A. Haldorai, “Time-series data prediction problem analysis through multilayered intuitionistic fuzzy sets,” Soft Computing, vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 1663–1671, Apr. 2022, doi: 10.1007/s00500-022-07053-4.
  18. S. Khokhar and Q. Peng, “Utilizing enhanced membership functions to improve the accuracy of a multi-inputs and single-output fuzzy system,” Applied Intelligence, vol. 53, no. 7, pp. 7818–7832, Jul. 2022, doi: 10.1007/s10489-022-03799-4.
  19. A. Yilmaz and U. Yolcu, “A robust training of dendritic neuron model neural network for time series prediction,” Neural Computing and Applications, vol. 35, no. 14, pp. 10387–10406, Jan. 2023, doi: 10.1007/s00521-023-08240-6.

Acknowledgements


This research was supported by Dongseo University, “Dongseo Frontier Project” Research Fund of 2023.


Funding


No funding was received to assist with the preparation of this manuscript.


Ethics declarations


Conflict of interest

The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare that are relevant to the content of this article.


Availability of data and materials


The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.


Author information


Contributions

All authors have equal contribution in the paper and all authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.


Corresponding author


Rights and permissions


Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution NoDerivs is a more restrictive license. It allows you to redistribute the material commercially or non-commercially but the user cannot make any changes whatsoever to the original, i.e. no derivatives of the original work. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/


Cite this article


Jeong Hee Woong, “A Performance Comparison of Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems for Time Series Forecasting”, Journal of Machine and Computing, pp. 094-104, January 2024. doi: 10.53759/7669/jmc202404010.


Copyright


© 2024 Jeong Hee Woong. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.